78 Survival and dispersal in a new Barnacle Goose population
©Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust
Wildfowl
(2013) 63: 72–89
Table 2
. Model outputs from survival analyses for Barnacle Geese ringed in two breeding areas in the Netherlands. Models are ranked
on the basis of their Q-AICc values (see text), with the best (most parsimonious) model at the top. S = survival; p = re-sighting rate;
t = time (year); g = group (ringed as juvenile or adult); s = sex; a = age (first year or older, as a continuous variable). Following
development of an initial model (see text), the model structure for reporting rate (r) and the fidelity parameter (F) were reduced, and
all models in the table share a common structure for these parameters: r(g*s*t),F(.). All other models for r and F provided a poorer
fit to the data and were not used in subsequent models. In the best model fit there was no age or group effect on survival; in model
2 this effect was present. AIC and deviance values were adjusted to account for overdispersion, at cˆ = 1.247.
Model
Q-AICc
Δ
Q-AICc AICc weight Likelihood
N
par Deviance
Delta
1 S(t),p(g*t),r(g*s*t),F(.)
3544.848
0.000
0.9120
1.0000
46 570.3262
2 S(a2(a2:juv = ad)*t),p(g*t),r(g*s*t),F(.)
3549.527
4.680
0.0878
0.0963
52 562.6819
3 S(t),p(t)r(g*s*t),F(.)
3564.333 19.485
0.0001
0.0001
40 602.0956
4 S(g*a2(a2:juv = ad)*t(a2)),p(g*t)r(g*s*t),F(.)
3565.005 20.158
0.0000
0.0000
54 574.0428
5 S(g*a2(a2:juv = ad)*s*t),p(g*t),r(g*s*t),F(.)
3566.693 21.845
0.0000
0.0000
64 555.0789
6 S(g*s*t),p(g*t)r(g*s*t),F()}
3568.411 23.563
0.0000
0.0000
68 548.5046
7 S(g*s*t),p(g*s*t)r(g*s*t),F(.)
3581.701 36.853
0.0000
0.0000
81 534.7196
8 S(g*a2*s*t),p(g*t)r(g*s*t),F(.)
3582.628 37.780
0.0000
0.0000
80 537.7367
Fryslân
1 {S(t),p(.)}
129.8771
0.000
0.2853
1.0000
4
121.322
2 {S(.),p(.)}
130.1789
0.302
0.2454
0.8600
2
126.017
3 {S(t),p(t)}
130.3939
0.517
0.2203
0.7721
7
119.549
